Direct answer
Startup Base, Bull, and Bear scenarios
Keep an evidence-based Base case, then choose three to five high-impact assumptions for Bull and Bear cases, such as acquisition, price, margin, hiring, and collection timing. Recalculate each case from the same model and compare revenue, margin, cash, runway, break-even, and funding gap.
- Keep one shared baseline model
- Change only high-impact assumptions
- Maintain internal consistency
- Compare cash and decision outputs
01Review area
Choose scenario variables
- 01
Find high-impact, low-confidence assumptions
Price, customer growth, margin, hiring, and collection timing usually matter more than minor expense lines.
- 02
Do not arbitrarily change every input
Bull and Bear cases need an operating story, not unrelated changes made to reach a preferred answer.
02Review area
Keep model consistency
- 03
Recalculate from the same baseline
Do not copy the model and overwrite output cells. Change assumptions and let formulas recalculate revenue, cost, and cash.
- 04
Model linked effects
More revenue may require headcount, cloud, or inventory. A downside case may also delay hiring or reduce spending.
03Review area
Compare decision results
- 05
Review cash, not only revenue
Compare cash-out date, runway, funding gap, and the lowest cash month.
- 06
Connect scenarios to actions
Assign hiring, spending, pricing, or fundraising adjustments to each trigger.
What Tessly can help with
Keep assumptions, calculations, and decisions in one model
Tessly preserves the Founder Base, creates separate cases, and compares assumptions, revenue, costs, runway, and funding gap without rewriting the source model.
A scenario is a decision tool, not a probability guarantee. Results depend on the assumptions, range, and model relationships.
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
Should the Base case be conservative or aggressive?
Base should be the most evidence-supported executable plan, not intentionally optimistic or pessimistic.
Do Bull and Bear need symmetrical changes?
No. Real opportunities and risks are often asymmetric, so use a reasonable range for each assumption.
How does scenario analysis differ from sensitivity analysis?
A scenario changes a coherent set of assumptions. Sensitivity analysis usually changes one variable at a time.
How many scenarios should a startup build?
Start with clear Base, Bull, and Bear cases. Add event cases such as delayed funding or product launch when needed.
Next step
Put this question back into the full financial model
Continue with the runway and burn rate guide or the 12-question fundraising checklist.